Uncertainty and ambiguity make it possible for conspiracy to penetrate from the periphery into the center of public life. Fortunately, we have the tools at our disposal to determine if we have fiction or conspiracy theory. These tools include common sense, knowledge of history, and the ability to recognize stereotypes and clichés.
Distinguishing between real and imaginary conspiracies or conspiracies and conspiracy theories is an absolutely necessary process. You cannot put on the same board those sounded in the 1930s. Winston Churchill's warnings about the secret intentions of the Nazis and the delusional fabrications of his contemporary Hitler about a Jewish conspiracy. It is necessary to clearly distinguish between the firm ground of facts and the swamp of fiction, since it is precisely this uncertainty that makes it possible for conspiracyism to penetrate from the periphery into the center of public life.
Fortunately, we have the tools at our disposal to determine if we have fiction or conspiracy theory. These tools include common sense, knowledge of history, and the ability to recognize stereotypes and clichés.
1. Common sense
Not everything that is permissible from the point of view of logic is permissible from the point of view of common sense. Not all enemies seek power over the world; accidents happen by themselves; churches, underground tunnels and senatorial chairs are not the murder weapon; do not suspect Catholics, Jews or Democrats of using such methods.As a scientist-logician noted, “when we put forward a hypothesis with the aim of explaining something, we are not operating in a vacuum. We have a wealth of knowledge at our disposal, consisting of beliefs, principles and theories, backed up from our side by numerous proofs. "
Common sense accepts simple explanations. Conspiracy theories, on the other hand, are complex and confusing. They need an interweaving of cunning and deceit and such a monstrous ingenuity of the mind that in the end they crumble at the root of their own improbability. Take, for example, the assassination of John F. Kennedy. It made no sense for some force to choose Lee Harvey Oswald, for there would be too many participants in the conspiracy.
For Oswald to be in the building of the Texas Book Depot, from which he could fire an aimed shot at Kennedy's motorcade, it would take the coordinated actions of four people, and hundreds of people would be involved in the entire operation. This contradicts the logical principle of simplicity: of two equally substantiated versions, the more convincing one should be recognized as the one that requires fewer new assumptions.
Two conclusions follow from this. First, conspiracies are realized only under certain circumstances (murders that had reason to take place in Moscow are meaningless in Washington). Second, the more effort it takes for an alleged conspiracy, the more dubious its reality. The version about the preparation of a palace coup makes sense; the version about the preparation of the Great French Revolution is madness.
2. Knowledge of history and conspiracy theory
Knowledge of the past easily reveals the impracticability of most conspiracies. Unforeseen accidents destroy the plans of the conspirators, the comrades-in-arms betray, the enemies recognize the threat in time. Generally, the more complex a plot is, the less likely it is to work.Niccolo Machiavelli, a witness to many intrigues, notes that a conspiracy "is always fraught with innumerable difficulties and dangers," and points to widespread failure: "There have been many conspiracies, but history shows that only a few have been successful."
The philosopher Karl Popper continues this thought: “First, they do not happen very often and do not change the basic features of social life. Assuming the conspiracies stop, the problems we face will not change fundamentally. Secondly, I argue that conspiracies very rarely succeed. As a rule, the results achieved absolutely do not coincide with the intended goals (let us turn, for example, to the Nazi conspiracy). "
Large-scale collusion in the Middle East by European, Israeli and American leaders has been unsuccessful; moreover, they ricocheted against the conspirators themselves. The British and French governments secretly divided the Middle East under the Sykes-Picot agreement, but soon lost their dominance.
In the case of the Lavon affair, Israeli intelligence tried to blame Gamal Abdel Nasser for the violence against Americans in Egypt, but was exposed. In the case of the Iran-Contra scandal, the US authorities secretly sold weapons to Iran and were exposed. Similar incidents occur all over the world.
3. Explicit stereotypes and clichés of conspiracy theories
Having identified the main features, it becomes obvious how much in common conspiracy theories have in essence. They are distinguished from conventional thinking by two main features: the same evidence and versions. Here are the clear signs of conspiracy.Mystery
By creating deceptive appearances, conspiracyists easily devalue generally known information and seek out bizarre and little-known facts. Due to the conspiracy's penchant for mysticism, the data they have selected are immediately striking.
Conspiracy
Usually, conspiracyists resort to impersonal constructions (“they were waiting for him”), but sometimes they use more open forms of communication, for example: “In order not to compromise those who may be involved in this case, I prefer not to disclose the sources of my information yet ”.
Use of forged documents
Falsifications are strong evidence of conspiracy. Fear of the Knights Templar grew as their history gradually became overgrown with fabricated facts. The pinnacle of the "posthumous glory" of the templars was the publication in 1877 of the "Latin Rule", which seemed to be compiled six centuries earlier.
The publication exposed the Order to secret and obscene practices. In a treatise published in 1614, the apostate Jesuit exposed the dark deeds and intentions of the Society of Jesus. In 1811 Napoleon issued a fake Testament of Peter the Great, dated 1709. In it, the tsar laid out the plans for Russian hegemony in Europe and with incredible accuracy predicted the events that took place in the century after his death.
In the 90s. XIX century. The American Protective Association has issued many forged documents. The most important of these was the false encyclical of Leo XIII, addressed to American Catholics, in which the Pope urged his overseas flock to exterminate all heretics (ie, non-Catholics). However, the so-called "Protocols of the Elders of Zion", fabricated in France and Russia on the basis of several earlier works, have become a fake for all times, and some of the primary sources are primitive slander.
Conspiracy theories
Conspiracyists repeat the same basic statements with minor variations and protruding inconsistencies. For half a century, American right-wing reactionary groups, one after another, raised the alarm, warning of enemy forces concentrated on the Mexican-United States border.
During World War II, one extremist leader wrote: “200,000 Jewish communists are ready to cross the Mexican border. If allowed, they will abuse all women and children left without protection. ”In 1962, the Minutemen raised the alarm over the Chinese Communist forces stationed on the Mexican border and preparing to launch an invasion.
A year later, the John Birch Society outlined the threat more troops specifically: 35,000-strong Chinese are poised to invade San Diego. In the 80s. The Posse Comitatus anti-government taxation movement turned the "Chinese threat" into thirty-five thousand Vietcong hiding in southern Texas. Subsequently, the Russian gathered in Mexico were already mentioned. Jews, Chinese, Vietnamese, Russians - fears are unlikely to identify the face of the enemy. There is a "paranoid style".
Redundancy of factual material and overly pedantic references
It seems that the conspiracy theorists are trying to overwhelm the reader with a heap of names, dates and facts. In proving that the CIA was involved in the distribution of cocaine in Los Angeles, Gary Webb gives such dizzying details from the lives of a large number of individuals that the reader can hardly follow the thread of his evidence.
A jumble of conspiracy theories
The failure of one conspiracy theory (for example, no "extra" bullets were actually found in Kennedy's body) is immediately explained with the help of another (the bullets were secretly extracted by doctors).
Sweeping away any inconsistencies in evidence
Conspiracyists start with a conclusion and look for justifications to reject all irrelevant facts. An assistant to Jim Garrison, a leading "expert" on the Kennedy assassination, describes his boss's methodology: “Usually we pick facts and then deduce a theory from them. Garrison, on the other hand, first deduced the theory, and then gleaned the facts. If the fact doesn't fit, Harrison will say it's a CIA rig."
Independence from the change of times
Centuries pass, generations change, but in the world of conspiracy fantasies, little changes. The most striking example of this is the Templars, a Catholic military-monastic order that appeared around 1119 and destroyed by the French king in 1314. Almost seven hundred years have passed since no one has seen a living Templar, but the mystical veil of the oldest "secret society" continues to live ...
The Bavarian Illuminati have been gone for more than two centuries, but they remain a powerful force in the conspiracy minds. The fascist faction Mothers of the United States of America has accused the Sanhedrin, a council of rabbis that ceased to exist in 66 AD. NS. - that he provoked Hitler to attack Poland (in order to discredit the Fuhrer).
Chivalrous attitude to facts
Sometimes the facts are rife. At first, the Rosicrucians "were so ubiquitous that their existence was called into question." The very idea of this organization appeared in three books of fantastic content, published in 1614, 1615 and 1616. Some readers (especially in Germany and England) took their existence on faith to such an extent that they began to look for opportunities to join the order and join the ancient secrets.
In the centuries that followed, charlatans and imaginary conspirators such as Filippo Buonarroti and Eliphas Levi used the mysterious name "rose and cross" for their own purposes. In 1915, the Ancient Mystical Order Rosae Crucis was founded in San Jose, California, transforming the ghost into a rigid organization with divisions and protocols. Cases with wholly contrived testimonies are also remarkable in their own way.
Posted by Daniel Pipes, Research Fellow at the Hoover Institute, Stanford University, and Professor at Harvard University. The material is published in an abridged and adapted translation from English.
