Ransomware continues to evolve rapidly in 2025, characterized by
record-high attack volumes but
historic lows in payment rates and total payouts. Victims are increasingly resilient, refusing to pay due to improved backups, faster recovery times, distrust of attackers (who often fail to delete stolen data or provide working decryptors), and strong discouragement from governments/law enforcement. This has disrupted the ransomware economy, forcing attackers to shift tactics: more opportunistic high-volume attacks on smaller targets, rising data-theft-only extortion, insider-assisted intrusions, and fragmentation of Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) groups.
Data here aggregates the latest from
Chainalysis (2025 Crypto Crime Report),
Coveware (Q3/Q4 2025 previews and historical),
Sophos (State of Ransomware 2025), and cross-referenced sources.
Ransomware Payment Trends: 2022–2025
| Year | Total Traced Payments (Chainalysis) | YoY Change | Payment Rate (% Victims Paying) | Median Payment | Average Payment | Key Notes |
|---|
| 2022 | ~$700–800M | Stable | ~40–50% | ~$200–300K | ~$1M | Big-game hunting peak |
| 2023 | ~$1.1–1.25B | +77–100% | ~50–70% | ~$150–250K | ~$1–2M | Record high; LockBit/Conti dominant |
| 2024 | $813.55M | -35% | ~29–37% (Coveware low ~25–29%) | ~$110–150K | ~$500K–2M | Sharp drop post-disruptions (LockBit/BlackCat) |
| 2025 (YTD/Proj.) | On track <$700–800M | -10–20% est. | 23–35% (Coveware Q3: 23%; Sophos ~49% for encrypted cases) | ~$115–140K (Coveware Q3 low) | ~$376–552K (Q3 drop 66%) | Historic lows; 63–82% refuse payment |
- Total Payments Decline — Chainalysis confirmed $813.55M in 2024 (35.82% YoY drop); 2025 projections indicate further reduction amid victim refusals and market fragmentation.
- Payment Rates Plummet — Coveware Q3 2025: only 23% paid (19% for data-theft-only); Q4 2024 historic low ~25%. Sophos broader survey: ~49% for encrypted cases, but overall refusals ~63%.
- Amounts Falling — Coveware Q3 2025: average $376,941 (-66% QoQ), median $140,000 (-65%). Sophos: average ~$1M (50% drop from 2024's $2M).
- Negotiation Gains — 53–82% of payers paid < initial demand (often 50–70% reduction); gap between demand/payment widened to 53% in late 2024.
Broader Incident Trends & Costs (2025)
| Metric | 2025 Value | YoY Change | Notes/Source |
|---|
| Attack Volume | Record highs (thousands daily; leak sites ~1,500+ victims/quarter) | +13–20% est. | Check Point/Sophos |
| Encryption Rate | ~50% (6-year low) | Declining | More data-theft-only |
| Data Exfiltration Rate | 76–90% | Rising | Double/triple extortion common |
| Recovery Cost (excl. ransom) | Median $1.53M (Sophos); total incident ~$5–6M | -44% (recovery faster) | Downtime/remediation dominant |
| Full Recovery Time | 53% <1 week | Improving | Better backups (97% recover data w/o payment in some surveys) |
| Root Causes | Exploited vulnerabilities (32%), credentials (23%), malicious emails | Vulnerabilities steady #1 | Sophos |
- Total Incident Cost → Far exceeds ransom: $1.53–6M average (downtime, remediation, lost revenue); ransomware recovery alone ~$2M in some sectors.
- Sector Variations → Manufacturing/healthcare most attacked; higher payments in critical infrastructure (e.g., retail average $1M, up 5%).
Why Payments Continue Declining in 2025
- Improved Resilience — Better backups/IR plans; 53% recover <1 week; 97% regain encrypted data w/o payment.
- Distrust of Attackers — Payments often fail to prevent leaks or provide decryptors; "data assurances" worthless.
- Law Enforcement Impact — Disruptions (LockBit/BlackCat remnants, RansomHub offline); arrests/seizures deter big-game hunting.
- Guidance & Bans — Governments discourage/consider bans; cyber insurance evolving (some exclude ransoms).
- Market Fragmentation — No dominant RaaS replacement; lone actors/insider threats rise; top groups' share fell to ~56%.
Attacker Adaptations in 2025
- High-Volume Opportunism → Targeting mid-market/SMBs; repetitive patterns.
- Insider/Helpdesk Social Engineering → Rising precursor (e.g., Scattered Spider tactics adopted widely).
- Data-Theft Focus → Encryption declining; extortion-only cheaper/faster.
- Active Groups → Akira/Qilin lead market share; Dragonforce surges.
Outlook for 2026
Continued payment decline projected if defenses mature, but risks from AI-enhanced phishing, supply-chain attacks, and new RaaS consolidation. Prevention (patching, MFA, tested backups) + IR planning yield highest ROI—many victims now recover without funding criminals.
These trends demonstrate victim empowerment starving the ecosystem. For industry-specific breakdowns or recovery strategies, provide details!
