The CIA Method: 7 Tricks to Make Good Decisions

Lord777

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We make choices every day. Easier: take an umbrella or not, what to eat for lunch. Or vice versa - where to go to work or invest savings. Everyone can change our life. And not the fact that for the better.

Former CIA agent Morgan Jones compiled a collection of 7 powerful tools in his book "Solving Problems Using Intelligence Techniques". Use them to get around the rake and make the right decisions quickly.

1. Structuring.
Structuring is like an essential travel card. It shows that the path starts from a specific point. But then the road branches out and can lead to different places. And so, which path you will go and where your journey will end is determined not by a map (you think, trees and rivers are drawn on it), but by analysis - and the steps that you will take after it.

Structuring makes it easier to analyze: it shows what you don't immediately notice and helps to understand the problem deeper.

2. New formulation of the problem.
Imagine a person who bought himself a water mattress and went to bed. In the morning he wakes up and sees water on his mattress. In annoyance, he takes the mattress outside and tries to add water to it.

But the mattress inflates so much that it eventually bursts. Then our hero goes to the store and buys a new mattress. And in the morning he again discovers water on it. Looking closer, he discovers that water is dripping from the neighbors upstairs.

He solved the problem, which he defined as: "How to close the leak?" But in fact, the problem is not correctly identified. He would need to be asked a completely different question: "How did the water get on my sleeping place?" It is necessary to separate the problem itself from its manifestations.

Before solving a problem, ask yourself the question: "What is the real problem?"

3. An instinctive and structured approach.
There are two ways to make decisions - instinctive and structured.

And more often we go along the first "path". What does it look like?

First, our analysis focuses on the solution we intuitively prefer. Second, we begin our analysis of the problem with the formulation of a conclusion. Third, we confuse thinking about a problem and analyzing it. Discussing a problem is like pedaling on an exercise bike: you will spend a lot of energy, but you will not budge. Fourthly, with this approach, we are highly susceptible to emotions. This is why we make mistakes more often.

But a structured approach will help take control of the tricks of our subconscious.

4. Scenario tree.
The scenario tree is a diagram that shows all the options available for selection. And the consequences of each of them. Each such chain is a separatĕ scenario.

For example, here's what a scenario tree might look like for a woman deciding to go on a date with a stranger:

Try using a script tree to solve your problem.
The script tree literally opens up the third eye. We see causal relationships, how one decision depends on another, we notice strengths and weaknesses.

And most importantly, we can discern alternatives that we simply would not have noticed.

It is a powerful analytical tool. And an easy way to structure the problem and not miss anything.

5. Reception "Devil's Advocate".
If you are too obsessed with your opinion, try the devil's advocate trick. It is simple: you must defend the opposite point of view.

This expression was used by the ministers of the Roman Catholic Church to check whether the deceased is worthy of canonization. During the discussion, the churchmen took the "position of the devil" and tried to refute the arguments in favor of canonizing the discussed subject.

The devil's advocate trick is extremely useful - we stop looking at the problem one-sidedly.

6. Negative and positive information.
Choose positive language. Scientists at Stanford have proven that people take longer to comprehend and process negative information than positive information. Participants in the experiment were shown cards like the one shown in the picture, and they had to answer as soon as possible whether the proposed statement was correct. Try it yourself!

Respondents spent more time answering if a statement was false than when it was true.

We spend about 0.5 seconds more on checking a false statement than on a fair statement.

We seem to be so structured that we tend to respond faster to a fair statement than to one that does not correspond to reality.

7. Structuring as a puzzle.
Here's what Agent Jones himself says. “I use structuring even when putting together a puzzle. First, I group the pieces by color or texture - say, all the blue ones, representing the sky, I put together. Then I divide these pieces into subgroups, according to the form. This allows my mind to choose the appropriate options, discarding a lot of unnecessary.

If I hadn't been grouping the pieces of the puzzle, I would have to constantly look through all the many unused elements - in search of those that might fit. And this is how most of us approach problem solving!"

We take the whole problem as a whole (like a puzzle), with all its complex aspects (all the pieces that make up the puzzle), and try to swallow and digest it all at once. And structuring allows you to “eat the elephant in parts”.

As Albert Einstein said: "No problem can be solved at the same level at which it arose."

These tools will teach you how to solve a problem on a different level. And succeed. No misfires. Is always.
 
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