Refund Fraud 2026: The war for "free" goods, where the store always loses money and the fraudsters are at risk.

[Professor]

Refund fraud, or "refunding," has evolved from a chaotic effort into an entire industry with services, guarantees, and ratings. However, by 2026, this "industry" itself has become a battleground between sophisticated fraudsters, advanced security systems, and aggressive retailers willing to sue for every penny.

What is "refunding"? Basic schemes​

This isn't just a simple "I didn't receive my package, please refund my money." This is a deliberate attempt to obtain goods or money for them by deceiving logistics systems and customer support.

1. DNA (Did Not Arrive) / "Empty Box":
   • Scheme: The buyer claims that the parcel did not arrive, or that the box arrived empty/damaged.
   • Evolution 2026: Now scammers provide "evidence" : photos of a supposedly cut-open box, videos of unpacking (with the product swapped before the recording), and claims that the courier left the package in an unauthorized location from where it was stolen.
2. Return Fraud:
   • Scheme: Return of the wrong product (a brick instead of a laptop, old sneakers instead of new ones) or a counterfeit one.
   • Evolution 2026: Use of high-quality replicas (super fakes) for luxury goods, return of discontinued or stolen serial numbers.
3. Chargeback Fraud (Friendly Fraud):
   • Scheme: The buyer receives the goods and then disputes the payment with his bank (card lost, transaction not recognized, goods not received).
   • Evolution 2026: The fraudster first feigns an attempt to resolve the issue with the store (contacting support, but delaying or disrupting the conversation) so the bank has a "basis" for a chargeback. They use cards issued under false identity (fullz), which complicates the investigation.

Refund-as-a-Service (RaaS)​

This is the core of the "industry. " "Refunders" (performers) and "guides" (intermediaries) operate on closed forums and on Telegram.

• How it works:
  1. The client wants to get the product for free (or get a refund for the old one) and finds a "refunder".
  2. For a commission (20-50% of the purchase price), the referrer provides instructions: which store to choose, what to order, how to communicate with support, what phrases to use, and what "evidence" to prepare.
  3. Often, the referrer requires full access to the client's account in the store and to their email address in order to conduct the conversation themselves.
  4. If successful, the client receives the product/money, and the referrer receives their commission.
• "Guarantees": Many offer a "guarantee" — if it doesn't work the first time, we'll try with another account. But in practice, this is often a scam.

Retailer Battle 2026: From Defense to Offense​

Retailers, especially large ones (Amazon, Walmart, Best Buy), are no longer silently bearing losses. They are waging an aggressive counterwar.

1. Predictive analysis and customer scoring systems:
   • Each client is assigned a refund score based on their history: frequency of returns, disputes, use of promo codes, and order processing speed.
   • Red flags: A new account with a large order; an account whose only activity is an expensive order and an immediate dispute; accounts linked by a common address/card/IP address but different names.
2. Detailed logistics telemetry:
   • Parcel weight at each stage: If the buyer declares an "empty box," the system checks whether the weight, when scanned by the courier, matches the declared one.
   • GPS tags and delivery photos: Couriers take a photo of the package at the door, along with a geotag and timestamp. This is ironclad proof of delivery.
   • Recipient's signatures (electronic or photo) - everything is stored.
3. Serial numbers and hidden markers:
   • When returning expensive electronics, we check not just for the serial number, but also for its activation in the manufacturer's network (Apple, Samsung). Returns of "bricked" items are opened immediately.
   • The use of UV marks and microdots on products and packaging that are not visible to the naked eye.
4. Automated chargeback disputing (Chargeback Representation):
   • Retailers aren't backing down from their positions with banks. They automatically submit rebuttals (representations), including all collected telemetry (tracking information, weight, delivery photos, chat history, and account IP logs).
   • Banks are increasingly refusing chargebacks in the presence of such evidence.
5. Legal action and class action lawsuits:
   • Retailers are reporting serial fraudsters to law enforcement.
   • By summing up the damage from one person (which can be scattered across dozens of small orders), a criminal case of fraud can be opened.
   • Civil Lawsuits: Stores sue scammers for damages, legal costs, and fines.

Risks for the "refunder" and the client in 2026: The game is not worth the candle.​

1. Lifetime ban and blacklisting: Your data (name, address, IP address, device fingerprint, card) is included in the retailer's internal databases and shared anti-fraud consortiums (Sift, Riskified). You will never again be able to order even a toothbrush from this or related stores.
2. Confiscation of funds and goods: The store may block and confiscate funds in your account (gift cards, balance) and recall sent but undelivered packages.
3. Criminal case: If the damage amounts to 10-15 thousand rubles (and it adds up quickly), this is already a charge under Article Criminal Code, "Fraud." Systematicity is an aggravating circumstance.
4. Scams by "refunders": 70% of "guides" are simple scammers. They either take an upfront payment and disappear, or use your account for their own schemes, hack your email, and extort additional money under the threat of "leaking" the store.
5. Loss of anonymity: Filing a dispute under your own name, using your real address and email, means leaving all the necessary details for the claim. Using droplets complicates the scheme to the point of impracticality.

Conclusion: The end of the "golden age" of refunding​

"Refunding" in 2026 is not easy money, but a high-risk lottery with a negative mathematical expectation.

• For the client: Risk being scammed by a scammer-middleman, getting banned, and facing legal troubles for the sake of a 100% discount on a product.
• For the "refunder": A constant race with AI systems that learn from their own methods, the need to maintain hundreds of "clean" accounts, and the risk of criminal prosecution for organizing a fraudulent scheme.

Retailers are no longer passive victims. They've transformed the returns process into a digital fortress with motion sensors. A successful attack now requires resources (email hacking, forging serial numbers, control over the supply chain) that render the very idea of "free goods" meaningless. This field has become the domain of either desperate amateurs doomed to failure or high-profile organized groups for whom refunds are merely a small side income. For everyone else, the "industry" remains merely a marketing ploy from course sellers who profit from selling these ploys, not from returns.