The volume of transactions using NFC technology in 2021 is estimated by IDATE at 4.6 billion euros. In 4 years it will reach a volume of 53.6 billion euros. Such forecasts are presented by the company in its annual report.
Market in numbers according to IDATE forecasts
The mobile payment market is still in its infancy, although there are many commercial proposals and sufficient technical capabilities, according to the IDATE report. However, most online and mobile payments are still made with a debit or credit card, and shops still pay in cash, check or debit card.
IDATE estimates the e-commerce market at € 1.145 billion, with 34.8 billion transactions in this sector in 2014 (according to CapGemini). In particular, mobile commerce accounts for 29 billion transactions worth 115 billion euros, of which 13% are transactions through alternative payment systems (without the participation of bank payment cards).
In addition, in 2021, IDATE predicts that there will be 278 million NFC-enabled mobile phones globally, with 28 million users likely using NFC to make payments. The volume of NFC transactions in 2021 is estimated by IDATE at the level of 4.6 billion euros, but by 2022 this figure will reach 53.8 billion euros. At the same time, the global market for payment transactions accounts for several hundred trillion dollars annually. Such a significant gap in volumes shows the differences between the two markets, but also stimulates the development of the contactless payments market.
As for the operators of billing systems, this market, according to the IDATE forecast, will reach 18 billion euros in the coming years. At the same time, about 30% of this volume will be accounted for by direct online billing.
Mobile payment trends
The battle in the mobile payment markets is now over simplicity. The mobile wallet should become more user-friendly and easier and more profitable to use than paying with a debit card. At the same time, most of today's mobile wallets are no better than bank cards, so they have not yet become a mass phenomenon.
Julien Godemer, one of the authors of the IDATE report, says: "The main added value of a mobile wallet is the other services built into the application: loyalty programs and a system for managing accounts and payment histories."
In accordance with this feature, mobile applications can already manage various payment cards, loyalty programs, and accumulate points for discounts. These features allow service providers to collect data on users' purchasing habits and provide them with targeted advertisements and offers. In addition, players who are already in the ad market (e.g. Google) increase their ad prices due to increased targeting.
Also interesting is the trend in which some market players are trying to cut back on the payment process in stores. For example, Apple originally developed iBeacon technology for geolocation, but now wants to use it to automatically pay for selected items when leaving the store. In addition, PayPal has developed a payment method at time of order (for example, for the McDonalds app) to avoid having to pay at the store.
Mobile payment operators set out to change the world
Additionally, internet giants and emerging mobile payments market players are actively trying to reshape the traditional payments ecosystem this year to generate more revenue. The payment technology market itself around the world does not generate as much revenue as they would like, and that is why they are trying to eliminate intermediaries between themselves and the user's money. For example, Paypal wants to get rid of payment systems (Mastercard and Visa), banks and telecommunications companies. Google uses its Android mobile operating system as an integrated payment system (via NFC) and a mobile wallet, avoiding telcos and other intermediaries in transactions. However, payment providers have yet to convince merchants to accept their terms, and commission on payment will be a key argument here.
In addition, virtual currencies such as Bitcoin have been actively developing lately. They are assessed ambiguously: some - as a global innovation, others - as a threat to the global financial system. Cryptocurrencies allow you to get rid of various markups when transferring funds from one user to another.
It is already clear that many small players around the world have begun to develop payment services based on the new currency and it is a matter of time how quickly these technologies will spread in the field of mobile and online payments.
Market in numbers according to IDATE forecasts
The mobile payment market is still in its infancy, although there are many commercial proposals and sufficient technical capabilities, according to the IDATE report. However, most online and mobile payments are still made with a debit or credit card, and shops still pay in cash, check or debit card.
IDATE estimates the e-commerce market at € 1.145 billion, with 34.8 billion transactions in this sector in 2014 (according to CapGemini). In particular, mobile commerce accounts for 29 billion transactions worth 115 billion euros, of which 13% are transactions through alternative payment systems (without the participation of bank payment cards).
In addition, in 2021, IDATE predicts that there will be 278 million NFC-enabled mobile phones globally, with 28 million users likely using NFC to make payments. The volume of NFC transactions in 2021 is estimated by IDATE at the level of 4.6 billion euros, but by 2022 this figure will reach 53.8 billion euros. At the same time, the global market for payment transactions accounts for several hundred trillion dollars annually. Such a significant gap in volumes shows the differences between the two markets, but also stimulates the development of the contactless payments market.
As for the operators of billing systems, this market, according to the IDATE forecast, will reach 18 billion euros in the coming years. At the same time, about 30% of this volume will be accounted for by direct online billing.
Mobile payment trends
The battle in the mobile payment markets is now over simplicity. The mobile wallet should become more user-friendly and easier and more profitable to use than paying with a debit card. At the same time, most of today's mobile wallets are no better than bank cards, so they have not yet become a mass phenomenon.
Julien Godemer, one of the authors of the IDATE report, says: "The main added value of a mobile wallet is the other services built into the application: loyalty programs and a system for managing accounts and payment histories."
In accordance with this feature, mobile applications can already manage various payment cards, loyalty programs, and accumulate points for discounts. These features allow service providers to collect data on users' purchasing habits and provide them with targeted advertisements and offers. In addition, players who are already in the ad market (e.g. Google) increase their ad prices due to increased targeting.
Also interesting is the trend in which some market players are trying to cut back on the payment process in stores. For example, Apple originally developed iBeacon technology for geolocation, but now wants to use it to automatically pay for selected items when leaving the store. In addition, PayPal has developed a payment method at time of order (for example, for the McDonalds app) to avoid having to pay at the store.
Mobile payment operators set out to change the world
Additionally, internet giants and emerging mobile payments market players are actively trying to reshape the traditional payments ecosystem this year to generate more revenue. The payment technology market itself around the world does not generate as much revenue as they would like, and that is why they are trying to eliminate intermediaries between themselves and the user's money. For example, Paypal wants to get rid of payment systems (Mastercard and Visa), banks and telecommunications companies. Google uses its Android mobile operating system as an integrated payment system (via NFC) and a mobile wallet, avoiding telcos and other intermediaries in transactions. However, payment providers have yet to convince merchants to accept their terms, and commission on payment will be a key argument here.
In addition, virtual currencies such as Bitcoin have been actively developing lately. They are assessed ambiguously: some - as a global innovation, others - as a threat to the global financial system. Cryptocurrencies allow you to get rid of various markups when transferring funds from one user to another.
It is already clear that many small players around the world have begun to develop payment services based on the new currency and it is a matter of time how quickly these technologies will spread in the field of mobile and online payments.
