Leave the world behind: analysts say whether a cyberattack can provoke a civil war

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In the film, criminals paralyze transport and cellular communications across the country. Is this really possible?

The recently released Netflix film "Leave This World Behind," based on the novel of the same name by Rumaan Alam and produced by the Obamas, paints a disturbing picture of a massive cyberattack on the United States. The idea is to destabilize the country by cutting off the Internet, mobile communications and navigation systems of transport, sow chaos in society and provoke a civil war.

What do the experts think about this?

According to Chad Heitzenreiter, a senior researcher at RAND Corporation, it is almost impossible to coordinate a cyberattack of this scale. For example, it is extremely difficult to disable cellular communication for all operators in the United States at once. Most likely, the incident would have affected only one operator in a particular region.

The film shows how attackers gain control over the navigation systems of various types of transport, including buses, ships, planes and Tesla cars. Although it is technically possible to give false navigation signals, most vehicles have manual control systems. In addition, it is extremely difficult from a technical point of view to simultaneously hack the navigation of all transport across the country.

The most logical thing to do would be to aim for aviation, since many automated equipment is used to control aircraft. However, security standards are much higher in this area. If there is a chance of success, it is very minimal.

As Heitzenreiter notes, cyber attacks can even be inexpensive due to vulnerabilities in specific systems. According to him, such vulnerabilities sometimes allow attackers to affect multiple targets at once. At the same time, one defect can be used repeatedly.

However, the problem is that such a large-scale campaign would require huge funds to identify vulnerabilities in all sectors. Therefore, it is difficult to call it "cost-effective".

"The preparation of such an operation, like any military campaign, does not guarantee success," he adds. — To guarantee the success of such a large-scale coordinated attack, it would require enormous resources and the most thorough preparation. Only the whole state can solve this problem."
 
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