Lord777
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Rumors get attention. If many people say that some stocks will go up, although there is no reason for this, it is likely that the stock price will go up. The higher it is, the more buyers. An amplifying feedback loop is created. Finally, market analysts launch a balancing loop: they announce that the rate is overvalued - people start selling stocks, and the rate falls.
Projections of impending shortages work in exactly the same way. What do people do when they find out that a certain product will soon disappear from sale? They go out and buy more “just in case” than usual to protect themselves from the expected deficit, and thereby create that deficit.
Example: When bakers went on strike a few years ago, a small amount of bread baked by non-union establishments was instantly sorted out: people were queuing up three hours before the stores opened. And during interruptions with gasoline, things got to the point of ridiculousness: many spent hours stuck in queues to take a dozen liters and “just in case” to fill the tank to capacity - what if there was no more fuel? This behavior seriously exacerbates any deficit. An uninterrupted supply of gasoline assumes that not everyone has a full tank at any given moment. If everyone fills up to capacity at noon today, the gasoline crisis is guaranteed. Gas stations will be empty and the deficit will continue until the system adjusts to the new level of demand.
Money is another good example. If everyone withdraws all the cash from their bank account, the financial system will collapse. It is worth spreading the rumor that banks have no money, depositors will rush to storm them in order to take their hard-earned money. And they just can't be enough for everyone, and the rumors will come true - the panic will do its job. What is the cause and what is the effect? If you separate the first and the second, it is impossible to answer this question.
Joseph O'Connor,
"The Art of Systems Thinking"
Projections of impending shortages work in exactly the same way. What do people do when they find out that a certain product will soon disappear from sale? They go out and buy more “just in case” than usual to protect themselves from the expected deficit, and thereby create that deficit.
Example: When bakers went on strike a few years ago, a small amount of bread baked by non-union establishments was instantly sorted out: people were queuing up three hours before the stores opened. And during interruptions with gasoline, things got to the point of ridiculousness: many spent hours stuck in queues to take a dozen liters and “just in case” to fill the tank to capacity - what if there was no more fuel? This behavior seriously exacerbates any deficit. An uninterrupted supply of gasoline assumes that not everyone has a full tank at any given moment. If everyone fills up to capacity at noon today, the gasoline crisis is guaranteed. Gas stations will be empty and the deficit will continue until the system adjusts to the new level of demand.
Money is another good example. If everyone withdraws all the cash from their bank account, the financial system will collapse. It is worth spreading the rumor that banks have no money, depositors will rush to storm them in order to take their hard-earned money. And they just can't be enough for everyone, and the rumors will come true - the panic will do its job. What is the cause and what is the effect? If you separate the first and the second, it is impossible to answer this question.
Joseph O'Connor,
"The Art of Systems Thinking"