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Scientists simulate the Earth's transition into a new era and warn of an unpredictable future.
A new study led by a team of physicists led by Alex Bernadini from the University of Porto, Portugal, suggests that the impact of human activity on the Earth system can lead to unpredictable chaos from which there will be no return. The paper, published in April 2022 on the arXiv preview server and awaiting peer review, uses a theory developed for modeling superconductivity to predict climate change.
The researchers applied the Ginzburg-Landau theory to the transition from the Holocene to the Anthropocene, suggesting a new geological epoch characterized by significant human influence on the entire Earth system. They used a logistic map to model the possible outcomes of this transition, given the limited resources and space of our planet.
The results show that although we are not doomed to an inevitable climate catastrophe, there is a risk of a transition to a state in which the climate stabilizes at a higher average temperature, which already has dangerous consequences for people and animals. In a more extreme scenario, the Earth may face chaos: extreme seasonal fluctuations and weather events that make it impossible to predict and mitigate climate change.
"By dividing human activity into several components, we studied the case where only two of them follow logistic maps and interact with each other," the researchers write. "Even in this simple case, we observed the appearance of chaotic behavior at the equilibrium points of the Earth system. This can lead to important consequences if at least some components of human activity actually follow logistic maps, which is a perfectly reasonable hypothesis, given the physical limitations of the planetary system in which we live."
The study's findings are not inevitable, but scientists emphasize the need to consider them as a real opportunity when developing strategies to mitigate climate change and manage the Earth system in the future.
The team's article appeared on the preliminary publications server arXiv, and its previous version was published in June 2023.
A new study led by a team of physicists led by Alex Bernadini from the University of Porto, Portugal, suggests that the impact of human activity on the Earth system can lead to unpredictable chaos from which there will be no return. The paper, published in April 2022 on the arXiv preview server and awaiting peer review, uses a theory developed for modeling superconductivity to predict climate change.
The researchers applied the Ginzburg-Landau theory to the transition from the Holocene to the Anthropocene, suggesting a new geological epoch characterized by significant human influence on the entire Earth system. They used a logistic map to model the possible outcomes of this transition, given the limited resources and space of our planet.
The results show that although we are not doomed to an inevitable climate catastrophe, there is a risk of a transition to a state in which the climate stabilizes at a higher average temperature, which already has dangerous consequences for people and animals. In a more extreme scenario, the Earth may face chaos: extreme seasonal fluctuations and weather events that make it impossible to predict and mitigate climate change.
"By dividing human activity into several components, we studied the case where only two of them follow logistic maps and interact with each other," the researchers write. "Even in this simple case, we observed the appearance of chaotic behavior at the equilibrium points of the Earth system. This can lead to important consequences if at least some components of human activity actually follow logistic maps, which is a perfectly reasonable hypothesis, given the physical limitations of the planetary system in which we live."
The study's findings are not inevitable, but scientists emphasize the need to consider them as a real opportunity when developing strategies to mitigate climate change and manage the Earth system in the future.
The team's article appeared on the preliminary publications server arXiv, and its previous version was published in June 2023.
