What economic incentives motivate carders to continue their activities?

[Student]

Carding, or credit card fraud, is a form of cybercrime in which participants (carders) steal, sell, or use credit card data for illegal gain. For educational purposes, I will examine the economic incentives that motivate carders, drawing on research and reports on cybercrime. This will help us understand how economic factors such as profitability, risk, and market conditions contribute to the continuation of such activity. It is important to note that this information is intended solely for understanding the problem and does not encourage any illegal activity; instead, it highlights the need for enhanced security measures and law enforcement.

1. High profitability and low entry costs​

One of the main economic incentives for carders is the potential for quick and significant profits with a relatively low initial investment. Cybercrime, including carding, is often described as a "low-cost" activity with a high return. For example, fraud tools such as malware kits (like Zeus or Mpack) can be purchased for around $500, while renting botnets (networks of infected computers) to distribute malicious code costs up to $1,000 per day for millions of nodes. This allows carders to quickly scale their operations: they can steal card data through phishing, malware, or database hacks, then sell it on underground markets on the darknet.

• Market prices and profits: On black markets, stolen credit card data sells for between $0.50 and $5 for basic information (card number, expiration date) and between $10 and $150 for a full set (fullz), including CVV, address, and personal information. Carders can monetize this data through fraudulent purchases, cash withdrawals, or resale. Research shows that the top 10% of carders earn $1,405 per month, equivalent to an hourly rate of approximately $9 for a full-time job. Large operations can generate profits in the millions: for example, one case involving 1.5 million cards resulted in losses of $4 million for victims, implying corresponding profits for the criminals. Former carders in interviews describe incomes in the millions of dollars per month, creating a cycle of return to activity even after arrests.
• Specialization and services: Carders often specialize, offering services like carding templates or botnet rentals (e.g., $6,800 for 4 days of access). This creates an ecosystem where participants earn money by acting as intermediaries, reducing risks for newcomers and increasing overall market efficiency.

In regions with low living standards (such as developing countries), such profitability is particularly attractive, as carding is perceived as an "easy" way to get rich compared to traditional work.

2. Low perceived risk and anonymity​

The carding economic model is based on a risk-versus-reward calculation, where potential profits outweigh potential losses. Many carders consider the risk of arrest minimal due to the anonymity of the darknet, the use of VPNs, cryptocurrencies, and the difficulty of international prosecution. The globalization of the internet allows crimes to be committed across borders where jurisdictions conflict and law enforcement is weak (for example, in the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China).

• Comparison with traditional crime: Unlike street robbery, carding offers higher payouts with lower risks. Online card fraud is 12 times higher than offline due to the lack of personal contact and the ease of disguise. While operations like arrests on forums (e.g., Shadowcrew) do occur, the market adapts, raising data prices and reducing card validity, but without halting the flow.
• Economic calculation: Based on the cost-benefit principle (marginal benefit exceeds marginal costs), carders continue if the profit is higher than expected fines or prison sentences. The low barrier to entry (access to forums and tools) allows them to start small and transition to a "legitimate business" after accumulating capital.

3. External economic factors and perverse incentives​

The broader economic context increases motivation. During recessions, financial pressure increases: people with IT skills who lose their jobs may turn to cybercrime. From 2006 to 2008, fraud losses in the US rose to 7% of annual corporate revenues (approximately $500 billion), partly due to the economic downturn.

• Perverse incentives in the industry: IT companies have little incentive to invest in security, as the "lemon machine" market (according to Akerlof's theory) fails to distinguish secure from insecure products, driving down prices and R&D. The "tragedy of the commons" as applied to the internet: individual gains from not investing in security lead to collective vulnerabilities, which are exploited by carders.
• E-commerce growth: The explosion of online transactions (losses from online card fraud are $230 million annually) is creating more opportunities. Global losses from credit fraud reach $1.5 billion annually, with a trend of increasing due to digitalization.

4. Psychological and social aspects in the economic context​

Although the focus is on economics, motivations include rationalization: carders see themselves as "entrepreneurs" in an underground economy, where stability (funds and regular profits) are key to survival. Research emphasizes that traditional theories of motivation (such as the "fraud triangle": pressure, opportunity, rationalization) are insufficient for cybercrime; new perspectives that take globalization and technology into account are needed.

Finally, carders' economic incentives are rooted in a combination of high profits, low risks, and systemic vulnerabilities, exacerbated by global trends. Global losses from such fraud reach billions of dollars annually, highlighting the need for education, investment in cybersecurity, and international cooperation to reduce the attractiveness of this activity. For further study, I recommend academic sources on cybereconomics.