Global warming could be a time machine for pathogens.
Ancient pathogens, according to scientists, can be "revived" in modern conditions due to the incessant melting of ice. An international team of researchers decided to study this threat in more detail, using digital simulations.
It turns out that "time travelers" can seriously change the communities of microorganisms they infect. "This is a new, fundamental threat that is now almost ignored in research on the impact of climate change on biodiversity," said Giovanni Strona, lead author of the study from the European Commission's General Research Center.
To make up for the lack of scientific information, experts used the Avida software for conducting experiments. The results, published in the journal PLOS Computational Biology, show a twofold picture: most ancient pathogens have only a small impact on their neighbors in the ecosystem, but 3% of microbes strengthen their position and begin to dominate.
Moreover, 1% of this number gives completely unpredictable results, up to the extinction of about a third of the species of digital organisms or, conversely, an increase in biodiversity to 12%.
This unexpected variability is definitely a cause for concern. After all, even with a good understanding of the biological features and ecological structure of new pathogens and local communities, it is almost impossible to guess the outcome of an invasion. "This makes it more difficult to assess risks and prepare for possible consequences," Strona said.
According to him, machine learning algorithms could not provide a clear "recipe" for dealing with the threat. This confirms the need for further research and careful monitoring of "guests from the past".
But among all the strategies to counter ancient bacteria, Strona highlights one that is most effective: "If the ice continues to melt, we should expect major environmental changes. Therefore, the only practical way to reduce this risk is to reduce emissions, " the scientist is sure.
Ancient pathogens, according to scientists, can be "revived" in modern conditions due to the incessant melting of ice. An international team of researchers decided to study this threat in more detail, using digital simulations.
It turns out that "time travelers" can seriously change the communities of microorganisms they infect. "This is a new, fundamental threat that is now almost ignored in research on the impact of climate change on biodiversity," said Giovanni Strona, lead author of the study from the European Commission's General Research Center.
To make up for the lack of scientific information, experts used the Avida software for conducting experiments. The results, published in the journal PLOS Computational Biology, show a twofold picture: most ancient pathogens have only a small impact on their neighbors in the ecosystem, but 3% of microbes strengthen their position and begin to dominate.
Moreover, 1% of this number gives completely unpredictable results, up to the extinction of about a third of the species of digital organisms or, conversely, an increase in biodiversity to 12%.
This unexpected variability is definitely a cause for concern. After all, even with a good understanding of the biological features and ecological structure of new pathogens and local communities, it is almost impossible to guess the outcome of an invasion. "This makes it more difficult to assess risks and prepare for possible consequences," Strona said.
According to him, machine learning algorithms could not provide a clear "recipe" for dealing with the threat. This confirms the need for further research and careful monitoring of "guests from the past".
But among all the strategies to counter ancient bacteria, Strona highlights one that is most effective: "If the ice continues to melt, we should expect major environmental changes. Therefore, the only practical way to reduce this risk is to reduce emissions, " the scientist is sure.
