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What happened?
Before we start analyzing the current situation, let us recall all the important events since the beginning of this year and find out why everyone suddenly began to speak sharply about the impending war. The first important event is Navalny's conclusion. By this action, our strict grandfather seriously undermined his rating of trust on the part of citizens. (in my opinion now it is in the region of 30%, which is not very much). Biden called Putin a murderer and began to impose new sanctions that are unpleasant but still not critical. The Ukrainian authorities began to actively put pressure on Putin's friend and blocked his TV channels. After all this, Russian troops began to actively move towards the border with Ukraine, and in numbers that exceed the concentration of our troops during the events of 2014. Of course, this is all presented under the guise of exercises and combat readiness tests, but for some reason all Western leaders were suddenly alarmed and began to call on Putin to put his army to hell. Naturally, the President of the Russian Federation is not a fan of compromises, so the forces at the border are only accumulating. What we have in the end. Sudden tension on the border with Ukraine and a sharp deterioration in diplomatic relations with the West for no reason. Yesterday just one Ukrainian diplomat was detained, and Europe is sending out Russian ambassadors with might and main. In short, it smells like fried.
Will there be a war?
If we abstract from politics and look purely from the side of the two peoples, then no one needs war. No matter how much we hate each other now, no one wants blood. But we all perfectly understand that only one person makes decisions. He sits in the Kremlin and has big ambitions to leave a few more pages about himself in the history textbook. There are no compelling reasons to attack Ukraine, except perhaps for the lack of water in Crimea. At the same time, there is no reason not to do so. Sounds absurd, but judge for yourself. The people no longer love grandfather. Relations with the West have been completely destroyed. The killer has already been named. More sanctions? Pfft .. Yes, enter everything at once! The construction of the Nord Stream will soon be completed, so Ukraine as a state is no longer interesting in principle. Soon, the election to the Duma and the war may just come in handy. And the economic course has not yet been taken. It will be possible to fit the conditions of the war The table is full of carte blanche, the prospects for the reunification of the USSR, the return of its former greatness and the reputation of the bloodiest tyrant in modern history. Although, I think, conscience is the last thing that worries the President of the Russian Federation. On the other hand, even though Putin has lost his ratings, war can rectify this situation. The scheme is already there. Straight from 2014. We divert all the attention of citizens to Ukraine, paint it the image of the country of Hitler and Satan and make it forget about pressing problems like the rise in food prices. True, this scenario will not work in the event of a full-scale war. Zinc coffins will destroy all ratings imaginable. Thus, here we have found the first argument against the bloody conflict. If Putin still values the trust of the people, then stop, because without an open conflict, he will not be able to grab a piece from the fraternal people. Waiting for more counter-arguments against the war below the post.
Effects
Suppose, hypothetically, the war did happen. Let's say we captured, if not all, then most of Ukraine. The West is unlikely to fit in, since my grandfather has quite working atomic warheads in his closet, and no one needs World War III. So, most likely Ukraine is in a deep ass. But not the fact that in deeper than we are. The Russian Federation will be isolated from the entire civilized world, trade and any ties will stop. You will no longer be able to enjoy my wonderful YouTube videos. The welfare of the population will deteriorate sharply, let alone the newly occupied territories. New North Korea, if not worse.
Outcome
I really hope that there will be no war, otherwise we will all be very badly. Nevertheless, you need to keep in mind the possibility of such a development of events and prepare. On the other hand, how ..? Express your opinion on this in the comments. I really hope that sooner or later the Russians and Ukrainians will still be able to make friends again.
Before we start analyzing the current situation, let us recall all the important events since the beginning of this year and find out why everyone suddenly began to speak sharply about the impending war. The first important event is Navalny's conclusion. By this action, our strict grandfather seriously undermined his rating of trust on the part of citizens. (in my opinion now it is in the region of 30%, which is not very much). Biden called Putin a murderer and began to impose new sanctions that are unpleasant but still not critical. The Ukrainian authorities began to actively put pressure on Putin's friend and blocked his TV channels. After all this, Russian troops began to actively move towards the border with Ukraine, and in numbers that exceed the concentration of our troops during the events of 2014. Of course, this is all presented under the guise of exercises and combat readiness tests, but for some reason all Western leaders were suddenly alarmed and began to call on Putin to put his army to hell. Naturally, the President of the Russian Federation is not a fan of compromises, so the forces at the border are only accumulating. What we have in the end. Sudden tension on the border with Ukraine and a sharp deterioration in diplomatic relations with the West for no reason. Yesterday just one Ukrainian diplomat was detained, and Europe is sending out Russian ambassadors with might and main. In short, it smells like fried.
Will there be a war?
If we abstract from politics and look purely from the side of the two peoples, then no one needs war. No matter how much we hate each other now, no one wants blood. But we all perfectly understand that only one person makes decisions. He sits in the Kremlin and has big ambitions to leave a few more pages about himself in the history textbook. There are no compelling reasons to attack Ukraine, except perhaps for the lack of water in Crimea. At the same time, there is no reason not to do so. Sounds absurd, but judge for yourself. The people no longer love grandfather. Relations with the West have been completely destroyed. The killer has already been named. More sanctions? Pfft .. Yes, enter everything at once! The construction of the Nord Stream will soon be completed, so Ukraine as a state is no longer interesting in principle. Soon, the election to the Duma and the war may just come in handy. And the economic course has not yet been taken. It will be possible to fit the conditions of the war The table is full of carte blanche, the prospects for the reunification of the USSR, the return of its former greatness and the reputation of the bloodiest tyrant in modern history. Although, I think, conscience is the last thing that worries the President of the Russian Federation. On the other hand, even though Putin has lost his ratings, war can rectify this situation. The scheme is already there. Straight from 2014. We divert all the attention of citizens to Ukraine, paint it the image of the country of Hitler and Satan and make it forget about pressing problems like the rise in food prices. True, this scenario will not work in the event of a full-scale war. Zinc coffins will destroy all ratings imaginable. Thus, here we have found the first argument against the bloody conflict. If Putin still values the trust of the people, then stop, because without an open conflict, he will not be able to grab a piece from the fraternal people. Waiting for more counter-arguments against the war below the post.
Effects
Suppose, hypothetically, the war did happen. Let's say we captured, if not all, then most of Ukraine. The West is unlikely to fit in, since my grandfather has quite working atomic warheads in his closet, and no one needs World War III. So, most likely Ukraine is in a deep ass. But not the fact that in deeper than we are. The Russian Federation will be isolated from the entire civilized world, trade and any ties will stop. You will no longer be able to enjoy my wonderful YouTube videos. The welfare of the population will deteriorate sharply, let alone the newly occupied territories. New North Korea, if not worse.
Outcome
I really hope that there will be no war, otherwise we will all be very badly. Nevertheless, you need to keep in mind the possibility of such a development of events and prepare. On the other hand, how ..? Express your opinion on this in the comments. I really hope that sooner or later the Russians and Ukrainians will still be able to make friends again.
