India's UPI and NPCI: Why South Asia is becoming the new frontier for low-friction payments

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How UPI allows for cardless payments – and what risks does it pose?

Introduction: Revolution in Your Pocket​

In 2016, India launched UPI (Unified Payments Interface), an instant payments system that has transformed the financial reality of 1.4 billion people in just eight years

. By 2026:

• 92% of Indians use UPI daily,
• 86% of all digital transactions are made through UPI, not cards,
• Debit card issuance fell by 53%.

This isn't just "convenience". It's a global experiment in decentralized finance, creating new opportunities — and new risks — for carders worldwide.

In this article, we'll explore how UPI works, why it's replacing cards, and what opportunities it opens.

Part 1: What are UPI and NPCI?​

Technical definition​

UPI (Unified Payments Interface) is a payment protocol developed by NPCI (National Payments Corporation of India).

Key features:

• Instant transfers (24/7, less than 5 seconds),
• Identification via Virtual Payment Address (VPA) — for example, user@bank,
• Linked to a bank account, not a card,
• Zero fees for users.

Example:
To pay for a taxi, you enter the driver's VPA → confirm via the PhonePe app → the money is debited within 3 seconds.

Part 2: Why UPI is Killing Cards in India​

Three reasons for abandoning cards​

1. Speed and simplicity

• Card: Enter PAN, CVV, expiration date → wait for 3DS → confirmation,
• UPI: Scan QR or enter VPA → confirm in app → done.

2. Zero costs

• Card: 1.5–2.5% commission for merchants,
• UPI: 0% for users, 0.15–0.5% for merchants.

3. State support

• Mandatory implementation for all banks,
• Integration with Aadhaar (national ID) - full verification.

Statistics (2026):

• Number of UPI transactions: 11.2 billion/month,
• Card transactions: 1.8 billion/month.

Part 3: How UPI Creates New Opportunities​

Two strategies for carders​

1. Exploiting weaknesses in the ecosystem
While UPI itself is impenetrable, it weakens control over cards:

• Banks are stopping investing in 3D Secure systems for cards,
• Non-VBV cards are still issued for international purchases,
• CVVs are generated automatically - low quality.

Good luck in 2026:

• Steam Wallet с Indian Non-VBV: 65–70%,
• Razer Gold: 60–65%.

2. Legal entry into the Indian market

• Register a MOTO business in the UAE/Georgia,
• Accept UPI through partner APIs (e.g. Razorpay, Paytm),
• Sell digital products directly to Indians.

Example:

• Selling online courses for INR via UPI,
• Conversion to USD via Wise,
• Profit: $3K–$8K/month – legal.

Part 4: Why UPI Doesn't Threaten Cross-Border Carding (Yet)​

Three reasons​

1. UPI only works within India.

• No international integration (unlike SEPA Instant),
• You can't pay for Steam via UPI.

2. Cards are required for international purchases

• Indians continue to use cards for foreign websites,
• Banks do not block international transactions.

3. Poor card control

• The regulator's focus is on UPI, not cards,
• Fraud monitoring for cards has been reduced.

Window of opportunity:
2027–2028 are the last years when Indian Non-VBV cards will work effectively.

Part 5: Risks of Using Indian Non-VBV Cards​

Three key threats​

1. Short lifespan

• Cards are blocked 5-10 days after activation,
• Reason: banks are massively recalling cards due to falling demand.

2. Low CVV quality

• The CVV is often static or generated algorithmically,
• This increases the risk of chargebacks.

3. Strengthening NPCI monitoring

• NPCI is testing AI engines to analyze international transactions,
• The first pilots will be launched in 2026.

Forecast:
By 2027, Indian Non-VBV cards will no longer exist as a mass product.

Part 6: The Future: UPI Goes Global​

Chronology of expansion​

Year	Event	Consequence
2025	UPI Integration with SingPass (Singapore)	First international transactions
2026	Pilot with UAE, France, UK	VPA expansion beyond India
2027+	SWIFT integration	UPI as a global standard

The truth:
UPI isn't just an Indian system. It's a prototype for the future of global payments.

Part 7: Practical Recommendations​

For carders:​

1. Use Indian Non-VBV cards now - while they still work,
2. Focus on digital goods (Steam, Razer) - physical goods are almost dead,
3. Don't invest in long-term strategies with Indian cards - the window will close by 2027.

For legal businesses:​

1. Register a MOTO business in the UAE,
2. Enable UPI acceptance via Razorpay/Paytm API,
3. Sell digital products to Indians — the market is growing by 30% per year.

Rule:
UPI is not a threat. It's a signal to adapt.

Conclusion: Evolution, not the end​

UPI doesn't "kill" opportunities — it redirects them.

Those who understand this evolution will find new ways — whether using weakened cards today or building a legitimate business tomorrow.

Final thought:
The real opportunity lies not in resisting change, but in embracing it.
Because in the world of finance, revolution is the best time for professionals.

Stay informed. Stay adaptive.
And remember: in the world of UPI, speed is your greatest asset.