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Forbes author and psychologist James Clear spoke on his Medium blog about why many people think they are making rational and informed decisions, but in reality they are not. They fall prey to common psychological misconceptions. We publish a translation of the material.
We like to think of ourselves as rational people, but this is far from the case. Over the years, researchers and economists have argued that people make informed and rational decisions. However, over the past decades, a large number of psychological delusions have been discovered that violate the objectivity of perception.
Psychologists and behavioral researchers love to come up with fanciful names for such misconceptions, such as "anchoring effect" or "narrative fallacy." But I don't want to go into scientific jargon. Instead, I would like to speak in an accessible language about the misconceptions that we face every day, and which most affect our lives.
1. Survivor bias.
Almost all online media today are filled with articles influenced by this misconception. If you see headlines like “Eight Things Successful People Do Every Day,” or “The Best Advice I Gave to Billionaire Richard Branson,” or “How Basketball Player LeBron James Coaches Out of Season,” then this is a clear expression of “survivor's mistake."
Thousands of athletes may have trained in the same way as LeBron James, but none of them made it to the NBA. The problem is that their experience remains unknown. We only see those who “survive”, so we mistakenly overestimate the strategies, tactics and advice of one successful person, ignoring the fact that for most people such strategies, tactics and advice did not work.
Another example: “Richard Branson, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg dropped out of university and became billionaires. So you don't need a college degree: just don't waste time and start your own business."
Most likely, Branson succeeded in spite of his choice, not because of it. For every Branson, Gates, and Zuckerberg, there are thousands of entrepreneurs with failed projects, debt, and incomplete college degrees.
Survivor bias is not a doubt that a particular strategy will not work in your case; it is a doubt that it works at all. Because when people remember only the winners and forget about the losers, it becomes difficult to determine how successful a particular strategy is.
2. Avoiding loss.
When choosing between gain and no loss, most people would prefer the latter. Research has shown that if you lose $ 10, you will be more disappointed than the pleasure you would get if you found $ 10.
Our propensity for loss avoidance leads us to make stupid decisions and change our behavior to keep what we have.
For example, buying new shoes will create a sense of joy. However, if after two months you are asked to give them to another person (even if you have never put them on), you will feel discomfort. It would seem that you have never taken them out of the box, but for some reason you are sorry to part with them: there is an avoidance of loss.
3. Availability is heuristic.
As a result of this misconception, it seems to us that the examples that come to our minds the fastest are either the most important or happen more often. A study by Harvard scientist Stephen Pinker found the 21st century to be the least violent period in human history. Now the largest percentage of the population lives in the world, and the number of murders, rapes, and child abuse is decreasing every year.
This statistic surprises many people, and some refuse to believe it.
"How is it, after all on TV they constantly talk about war, about murder and rape?", They say. This is the effect of the availability heuristic.
What really happened in the world. What was shown on the news.
The answer is that not only do we live in the quietest time in history, but also the most well-lit one. Now everyone can find a huge amount of information about a high-profile murder or natural disaster. More than you could have read in the most detailed newspaper 100 years ago.
The number of sad events is decreasing, but the amount of information you receive about them is growing. And since we are subconsciously tuned in to such events, the brain begins to think that they happen more often than they actually do.
4. Anchoring effect.
There is a burger shop not far from my city that is famous for its delicious recipes. When I looked there for the first time, I noticed that the menu in large bold letters read: "We put no more than six types of cheese in one burger."
I didn't know how smart the restaurant owners were until I heard about the anchoring effect. Normally, I would ask you to put one slice of cheese on the burger. But when they put a restriction on me, then subconsciously I am already determined to order more than I originally wanted.
Most likely, few people order exactly six types. But the “anchor” encourages people to put not one, but two or three slices of cheese in a burger, which increases the average bill by a couple of dollars.
This effect has been confirmed in various experiments and other areas of commercial activity. For example, if there is a sign in a retail store: "No more than 12 units of goods per hand," then people on average will buy twice as much as when there are no restrictions.
In addition, the anchoring effect helps to sell more expensive items. If you see a watch that costs $ 500, it will seem expensive to you. But if you suddenly see a watch for $ 500 in a store among watches for $ 5000, then the price will seem acceptable to you. Many companies do not expect premium sales to be strong, but they are helping to boost sales of mid-range products because they seem much cheaper compared to them.
5. Confirmation bias.
As a result of this misconception, we give preference to information that supports our beliefs and ignore information that contradicts them. For example, if a person believes that climate change is a serious problem, then he will read articles on renewable energy sources, environmental organizations and issues. As a result, he will only strengthen his point of view.
If the other person thinks climate change is not a problem, then they will be attracted by articles that explain why climate change is not really happening, why scientists are wrong, and how we are all being fooled. As a result, he, too, will strengthen his point of view.
Changing your point of view is much more difficult than it seems at first glance.
Circle left: What the facts say. Circle on the right: What suits your views.
This misconception applies to every area of our life. For example, if you have just bought a Honda Accord and think this is the best deal on the market, then naturally you will read articles where the same point of view is expressed. But if in another magazine another model is chosen for the car of the year, then you will not believe it and decide that the editor was mistaken.
It is unnatural for us in our daily life to formulate a hypothesis and then prove its inconsistency. Instead, we do the opposite: formulate a hypothesis, and then look for confirmation of our correctness.
What to do about it.
Once you discover that you have one of these effects, your first reaction will most likely be to get rid of it. But everything is not so simple here. Misconceptions are not a signal about the existence of some psychological problems, but special mental mechanisms that help us save energy for making decisions.
In some situations this is useful, in some it is not. The problem with our brain is that it takes the least shortcut and stimulates these effects when they harm us. Therefore, self-control and a conscious attitude towards life can be the best prevention of these delusions.
We like to think of ourselves as rational people, but this is far from the case. Over the years, researchers and economists have argued that people make informed and rational decisions. However, over the past decades, a large number of psychological delusions have been discovered that violate the objectivity of perception.
Psychologists and behavioral researchers love to come up with fanciful names for such misconceptions, such as "anchoring effect" or "narrative fallacy." But I don't want to go into scientific jargon. Instead, I would like to speak in an accessible language about the misconceptions that we face every day, and which most affect our lives.
1. Survivor bias.
Almost all online media today are filled with articles influenced by this misconception. If you see headlines like “Eight Things Successful People Do Every Day,” or “The Best Advice I Gave to Billionaire Richard Branson,” or “How Basketball Player LeBron James Coaches Out of Season,” then this is a clear expression of “survivor's mistake."
Thousands of athletes may have trained in the same way as LeBron James, but none of them made it to the NBA. The problem is that their experience remains unknown. We only see those who “survive”, so we mistakenly overestimate the strategies, tactics and advice of one successful person, ignoring the fact that for most people such strategies, tactics and advice did not work.
Another example: “Richard Branson, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg dropped out of university and became billionaires. So you don't need a college degree: just don't waste time and start your own business."
Most likely, Branson succeeded in spite of his choice, not because of it. For every Branson, Gates, and Zuckerberg, there are thousands of entrepreneurs with failed projects, debt, and incomplete college degrees.
Survivor bias is not a doubt that a particular strategy will not work in your case; it is a doubt that it works at all. Because when people remember only the winners and forget about the losers, it becomes difficult to determine how successful a particular strategy is.
2. Avoiding loss.
When choosing between gain and no loss, most people would prefer the latter. Research has shown that if you lose $ 10, you will be more disappointed than the pleasure you would get if you found $ 10.
Our propensity for loss avoidance leads us to make stupid decisions and change our behavior to keep what we have.
For example, buying new shoes will create a sense of joy. However, if after two months you are asked to give them to another person (even if you have never put them on), you will feel discomfort. It would seem that you have never taken them out of the box, but for some reason you are sorry to part with them: there is an avoidance of loss.
3. Availability is heuristic.
As a result of this misconception, it seems to us that the examples that come to our minds the fastest are either the most important or happen more often. A study by Harvard scientist Stephen Pinker found the 21st century to be the least violent period in human history. Now the largest percentage of the population lives in the world, and the number of murders, rapes, and child abuse is decreasing every year.
This statistic surprises many people, and some refuse to believe it.
"How is it, after all on TV they constantly talk about war, about murder and rape?", They say. This is the effect of the availability heuristic.
What really happened in the world. What was shown on the news.
The answer is that not only do we live in the quietest time in history, but also the most well-lit one. Now everyone can find a huge amount of information about a high-profile murder or natural disaster. More than you could have read in the most detailed newspaper 100 years ago.
The number of sad events is decreasing, but the amount of information you receive about them is growing. And since we are subconsciously tuned in to such events, the brain begins to think that they happen more often than they actually do.
4. Anchoring effect.
There is a burger shop not far from my city that is famous for its delicious recipes. When I looked there for the first time, I noticed that the menu in large bold letters read: "We put no more than six types of cheese in one burger."
- My first thought: “Stupidity. Who even puts six types of cheese in a burger? "
- My second thought is, "So, what flavors should I choose?"
I didn't know how smart the restaurant owners were until I heard about the anchoring effect. Normally, I would ask you to put one slice of cheese on the burger. But when they put a restriction on me, then subconsciously I am already determined to order more than I originally wanted.
Most likely, few people order exactly six types. But the “anchor” encourages people to put not one, but two or three slices of cheese in a burger, which increases the average bill by a couple of dollars.
This effect has been confirmed in various experiments and other areas of commercial activity. For example, if there is a sign in a retail store: "No more than 12 units of goods per hand," then people on average will buy twice as much as when there are no restrictions.
In addition, the anchoring effect helps to sell more expensive items. If you see a watch that costs $ 500, it will seem expensive to you. But if you suddenly see a watch for $ 500 in a store among watches for $ 5000, then the price will seem acceptable to you. Many companies do not expect premium sales to be strong, but they are helping to boost sales of mid-range products because they seem much cheaper compared to them.
5. Confirmation bias.
As a result of this misconception, we give preference to information that supports our beliefs and ignore information that contradicts them. For example, if a person believes that climate change is a serious problem, then he will read articles on renewable energy sources, environmental organizations and issues. As a result, he will only strengthen his point of view.
If the other person thinks climate change is not a problem, then they will be attracted by articles that explain why climate change is not really happening, why scientists are wrong, and how we are all being fooled. As a result, he, too, will strengthen his point of view.
Changing your point of view is much more difficult than it seems at first glance.
Circle left: What the facts say. Circle on the right: What suits your views.
This misconception applies to every area of our life. For example, if you have just bought a Honda Accord and think this is the best deal on the market, then naturally you will read articles where the same point of view is expressed. But if in another magazine another model is chosen for the car of the year, then you will not believe it and decide that the editor was mistaken.
It is unnatural for us in our daily life to formulate a hypothesis and then prove its inconsistency. Instead, we do the opposite: formulate a hypothesis, and then look for confirmation of our correctness.
What to do about it.
Once you discover that you have one of these effects, your first reaction will most likely be to get rid of it. But everything is not so simple here. Misconceptions are not a signal about the existence of some psychological problems, but special mental mechanisms that help us save energy for making decisions.
In some situations this is useful, in some it is not. The problem with our brain is that it takes the least shortcut and stimulates these effects when they harm us. Therefore, self-control and a conscious attitude towards life can be the best prevention of these delusions.
