Lord777
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The black swan is a metaphor used to describe an event (https://delopahnetkerosinom.ru/grey-rhino/), so incredible and impossible that no one could have foreseen it. Nassim Taleb made this metaphor part of the everyday discussion. Now all that happens is a black swan. The crisis is a black swan. Coronavirus is a black swan. The fall in oil prices is a black swan. But this is a delusion. There simply cannot be so many black swans. I like another metaphor. All these events are Gray Rhinoceros.
What is a Gray Rhino?
The gray rhino is an obvious and highly likely event that everyone ignores. And we are much more likely to see gray rhinos than black swans.
The metaphor was invented by Michele Wucker, an economist and risk specialist.
For specialists, many problems seem obvious and quite expected. For example, the coronavirus situation from China is not a black swan. This is a gray rhino. China was the source of SARS in the early 2000s. The virus was defeated, but the root problem was not solved. Therefore, the repetition of the situation was a matter of time.
Another example is climate change. Everyone understands the situation. But we are in no hurry to solve it aggressively. We don't know what the worst-case scenario will look like, but when and if it happens, it won't be a black swan. It will be a gray rhino.
? Why do we ignore gray rhinos?
Michelle Wucker cites 3 main reasons.
1. We think that someone else will deal with this problem.
This is part of Western culture. We are individualists who are used to relying only on ourselves. And at the same time - we are not inclined to deal with problems that do not particularly affect us personally.
2. We do not like to learn and understand problems.
Jordan Peterson, a psychologist and psychotherapist, says that any training in anything is plunging into chaos. And most people don't like chaos. Not knowing something, especially when surrounded by people who know it, is uncomfortable. Therefore, we either pretend that we know and turn off, or we make an effort on ourselves, plunge into this chaos and learn. In any case, we strive to return to the comfort zone.
As a rule, we choose the first option. Hide from the problem, ignore.
3. We think that we cannot influence the situation.
Everything is clear here. You are alone, there is nothing you can do.
Yes, you may not be able to do something here and now. But you can set yourself this goal. And there will always be ways.
? What other gray rhinos are rushing towards us right now?
Several come to mind. Shale oil production, at current prices, looks like a rather stupid business. While it provides a tremendous service to the world's oil and gas industry, it is a gray rhino for investors and market stability.
Energy transition and pressure from activists on oil companies. Everyone understands that we need to diversify from hydrocarbon fuels. But there are no alternative ideas that would effectively use not only the cash flow of oil and gas companies, but also a unique set of competencies on the horizon.
What is a Gray Rhino?
The gray rhino is an obvious and highly likely event that everyone ignores. And we are much more likely to see gray rhinos than black swans.
The metaphor was invented by Michele Wucker, an economist and risk specialist.
For specialists, many problems seem obvious and quite expected. For example, the coronavirus situation from China is not a black swan. This is a gray rhino. China was the source of SARS in the early 2000s. The virus was defeated, but the root problem was not solved. Therefore, the repetition of the situation was a matter of time.
Another example is climate change. Everyone understands the situation. But we are in no hurry to solve it aggressively. We don't know what the worst-case scenario will look like, but when and if it happens, it won't be a black swan. It will be a gray rhino.
? Why do we ignore gray rhinos?
Michelle Wucker cites 3 main reasons.
1. We think that someone else will deal with this problem.
This is part of Western culture. We are individualists who are used to relying only on ourselves. And at the same time - we are not inclined to deal with problems that do not particularly affect us personally.
2. We do not like to learn and understand problems.
Jordan Peterson, a psychologist and psychotherapist, says that any training in anything is plunging into chaos. And most people don't like chaos. Not knowing something, especially when surrounded by people who know it, is uncomfortable. Therefore, we either pretend that we know and turn off, or we make an effort on ourselves, plunge into this chaos and learn. In any case, we strive to return to the comfort zone.
As a rule, we choose the first option. Hide from the problem, ignore.
3. We think that we cannot influence the situation.
Everything is clear here. You are alone, there is nothing you can do.
Yes, you may not be able to do something here and now. But you can set yourself this goal. And there will always be ways.
? What other gray rhinos are rushing towards us right now?
Several come to mind. Shale oil production, at current prices, looks like a rather stupid business. While it provides a tremendous service to the world's oil and gas industry, it is a gray rhino for investors and market stability.
Energy transition and pressure from activists on oil companies. Everyone understands that we need to diversify from hydrocarbon fuels. But there are no alternative ideas that would effectively use not only the cash flow of oil and gas companies, but also a unique set of competencies on the horizon.
