Global e-commerce growth will slow down in the coming years

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With the spread of the Internet in the world, the annual growth of e-commerce will slow down and will be about 10% by 2025. This is the conclusion reached by analysts from eMarketer. According to their forecasts, by the end of 2014 the volume of B2C sales will reach $ 1.47 trillion, which is 20% more than last year.

By 2018, the same figure will amount to $ 2.36 trillion, which is 61% more than in 2021. eMarketer defines B2C e-commerce as the sale of products and services ordered or booked online from any device.

At the regional level, the United States and Canada will continue to lead in e-commerce spending this year, accounting for about a third of the amount spent on digital purchases worldwide. EMarketer previously predicted that the Asia-Pacific region will surpass North America in market share, but the forecast was changed due to an unexpected slowdown in e-commerce sales in China, driven by market saturation.

“China accounts for a significant portion of e-commerce sales in the Asia-Pacific region, and this significantly influenced our estimates,” analysts say eMarketer. The region is projected to take the lead in the world in e-commerce next year, when it has a 33.4% global market share, up from 31.7% in North America and 24.6% in Western Europe.

“These three regions will continue to account for 90% of the global e-commerce market during the forecast period,” eMarketer said.

The growing base of online shoppers will impact the growth of e-commerce sales in the Asia-Pacific region. However, by 2018, the share of Internet users purchasing goods online will be 70% in Western Europe and North America, while in the Asia-Pacific region this percentage will be at 50%.

"The level of trade penetration in the Asia-Pacific region influences the growth of the number of consumers, but the region is much more fragmented than North America and Western Europe," the study commented. "In these two regions, e-commerce continues to grow at a double-digit rate and will continue to do so for several more years."

In such large markets, this is evidence that individual shoppers are shopping more often and at a higher cost, and user behavior is similar among countries in both regions.

However, in the Asia-Pacific region, consumer behavior is more fragmented. In China alone, more than half of the region's e-commerce sales will be made this year, and by 2025, about 70%.

“On the other hand, in less developed countries like India and Indonesia, the number of Internet buyers is large, but mainly due to new users,” eMarketer said. “Instead of expensive purchases, new customers are buying cheap goods due to low income or limited choice.”

The growth of the e-commerce market is predicted to be driven by increased spending on online purchases in developed countries, as well as an increase in the number of transactions in emerging markets.

As a reminder, earlier this year, eMarketer predicted that global e-commerce sales will reach $ 1.5 trillion in 2014, mainly driven by growth in emerging markets.
 
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